Step 1: What is the problem?

To make the best decisions, you need to state your decision problems carefully, acknowledging their complexity and avoiding unwarranted assumptions and option-limiting prejudices. The way you state your problem frames your decision.  It determines the alternatives you consider and the way you evaluate them. Posing the right problem drives everything else.  A good choice for a well-posed problem is almost always a better choice than an excellent choice for a poorly posed one.

We do not make decisions for the fun of it, we make decisions to address difficult and complicated circumstances. But not all the problems are bad, and in the midst of difficult problems lay opportunities. Posing the right problem drives everything else, decision makers are often more likely to make a good decision for the wrong problem, than a bad decision for the right problem. The most frequent failing is simply accepting the problem as it occurs to us or as it is presented to us. Creative thinking is required to gain the insight and understanding that leads to getting the decision right.

Complex problems tend to have spill-over effects in all directions. Thus, bounding a problem is critically important; problems that are not limited in scope remain hopelessly intractable. However, an ideal solution for a problem that is too narrow could be a poor solution for a more broadly and accurately defined problem.

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